Applications of Conditional Inferential Methods for Operational Cost Savings for US Coast Guard C130Aircraft Maintenance

摘要

Maintenance costs play a significant role inrnthe overall operational cost of the US Coast Guardrn(USCG) fleet of C130 aircraft. Selection of thernpreventative maintenance interval for the C130 1500rnSeries Flight Deck Cooling Turbine provides anrnopportunity for considerable maintenance cost savings.rnIf this turbine fails in service, it may be damagedrnbeyond repair and cost $30,000 to replace. Ifrnoverhauled before failure, the cost is typically $500.rnThe USCG currently allows this turbine to fail inrnservice, and is considering a preventative maintenancernschedule of periodic overhauls. Failure data for thisrnturbine is relatively scarce however. This paucity ofrndata magnifies the perceived impact of uncertainties inrnthe data, which all but paralyzes USCG decisionrnmakers charged with selecting an overhaul interval.rnThe authors process failure and replacement cost datarnfor this turbine using conditional inferential methods.rnStatistical distributions of Expected Costs Savings perrnFlight Hour are parameterized as a function of overhaulrninterval. These distributions and related estimatesrnallow USCG decision makers to confidently select anrnoverhaul interval that minimizes maintenance costs andrnis commensurate with existing maintenance schedules.