Can Tsunami Waves in the South China Sea Be Modeled with Linear Theory?

摘要

We have compared the results from linear and nonlinear theories of the shallow-water equations applied to the South China Sea. Our results indicate that tsunami waves in the South China Sea can be modeled with linear theory. There is little difference in the probability predicted by nonlinear theory and that forecasted by linear treatment on tall waves, more than two meters high, which may impinge on Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan. This probability is estimated to be 10% in the next century.