Epidemic Alert Response Framework and Technology Based on Spreading Dynamics Simulation

摘要

There have been many research works on epidemic spreading by mathematical or simulation methods. However, to make it practical as a decision support tool for policy maker, it should be combined with business operation of epidemic control. Thus, an alert and response framework covering outbreak detection, policy analysis and policy execution is proposed in this paper. Key technologies for such a framework at modeling, analysis and data collection aspects are discussed. Sensitivity analysis is proposed for model verification and confidence analysis. Critical point identification is another important topic for control policy making by network topology analysis. The importance and feasibility of these technologies are illustrated by the experiment on Beijing SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) data in 2003.