Techniques for comprehensive risk assessment of climatic drought in winter wheat production in Northern China

摘要

Shortage of water supply in the growing season is the key condition to form a drought in the winter wheat production. Knowledge of risks brought about by the drought in winter wheat production is helpful in agricultural management. In this work, we investigated the intensities of droughts and probability of their occurrence as well as their impacts on the wheat yield based on water requirement by the crop and the nature of precipitation. Various techniques to comprehensively assess the risks of droughts in winter wheat production are exploited to develop the model of risk assessment of climatic droughts, the model of risk assessment of crop droughts, and the model of comprehensive risk assessment of crop-climatic droughts. The models are used in regional comprehensive risk assessment of droughts in winter wheat production in Northern China. A regionalization of risk levels is performed for this area. The results are helpful in adjusting the cropping arrangement and in carrying out agricultural managements to minimize or prevent the risk of droughts.