IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE IN ONLINE INVESTING:AN EXAMINATION OF THE ROLE OF SELF-EFFICACYIN ONLINE INVESTOR OVERCONFIDENCE

摘要

Empirical evidence suggests that online investing can be hazardous to one's wealth. Through analyses ofhistorical data acquired from a large online brokerage firm, Barber & Odean (2001) propose that a varietyof forces lead to undesirable investment outcomes. Although these studies provide compelling correlationalevidence linking factors such as overconfidence and attribution biases, little is understood about the causalagents underlying these relationships. The proposed program of study endeavors to fill this void. This researchintends to build and test theory by utilizing a Web-based information system as a basis for controlled empiricalstudy. The brokerage simulator, designed for versatility, allows researchers to reproduce realistic situationsthat online investors typically confront. By combining a socio-technical approach to theorization, a robusttechnology, and a free simulation experiment, causal influences can emerge that would otherwise remainundiscovered in archival data. With this understanding, we can better equip investors, prescribe technologicaldesigns to facilitate quality decision making, and influence public policy.