Short-Term Traffic Flow Forecasting Based on Grey Delay Model

摘要

Under the real circumstances of traffic flow's grey features and traffic system's delay effect, this paper construct a grey delay model (GA/(I,1, r) model) and investigate relevant properties, Finally, we complete a traffic experiment on the section of Youyi Avenue, estimate the delay time of the system and establish the delay model. The comparison between the delay model with the GM(1,1) model without considering practical conditions of the traffic system shows that incorporating existing delay effect of the traffic system into the model can reasonably reflect the characteristics of the system and provide satisfactory predictions.