Global Low Carbon Fuels Vehicles Developments: What's in Store for the Industry?

摘要

The continuing challenge to mitigate air pollution and GHG emissions in the transport sector will continue pushing countries around the world to adopt LCFV policies, including biofuels programs, fuel economy standards and ZEV programs and incentives. Car bans and restrictions and a renewed push toward public transport are other initiatives to watch as well, though not the subject of this paper. The need to address worsening air pollution as a major public health threat may prove to be an even larger, more proximate driver for these initiatives than climate change. The Paris Agreement is also a driver, but we all need to watch actual implementation and whether the gap between aspiration and implementation really closes. Another important factor is what could happen to the agreement and its implementation if President Trump makes good on his promise to pull the U.S. out. Nevertheless, it is air pollution and air quality the industry needs to keep its eye on, which has been overshadowed by the media attention on climate change. Biofuels are more closely linked to climate change than to air pollution mitigation, though there are some benefits depending on the biofuel type. Biofuels are more likely to benefit from strong climate change policies such as cap-and-trade, a reduction/removal of fossil fuel subsidies and a carbon tax. While there are some regionalational cap-and-trade programs in place and some countries are reducing/removing fossil fuel subsidies, most countries, including the U.S. do not have a carbon tax in place (and there are no such plans to introduce them). That is not good news for advanced biofuels, which will largely continue to stall barring any major technological breakthrough. Notable exceptions will continue to be renewable diesel, renewable natural gas and biogas. The push for global fuel economy standards for both LDVs and HDVs is going to continue. And that strong push, as BP has highlighted, could drive EV market development. It remains to be seen whether there will be an oil crash or investor death spiral as a result of EVs, but there is no doubt that countries particularly in Europe, China and U.S. states will continue to set policies to help develop the market. Other countries will eventually follow. Moreover, technological evolution and breakthroughs in EV technologies (e.g. batteries) will continue and be linked with autonomous, connected technologies, transforming driving as we know it and consequently, the auto and refining industries.