SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH FOR MODELLING COMPLEX HEALTHCARE SYSTEMS

摘要

Simulation is a well-known Operational Research technique, and it has been widely used in the healthcare sector for clinical decision-making, facility location planning, and resource allocation. Discrete-event simulation (DES) and System Dynamics (SD) are the most popular simulation techniques used for these purposes, mainly because of their abilities to model uncertainty and variability. This paper describes a case study of using SD approach to investigate the dynamic complexity of the National Health Service (NHS) 18-weeks pathway. Since the 18 weeks pathway involves a large population and with complex definition of patient status, SD was chosen for this purpose. This study applied both the qualitative aspect (by using causal loop diagram) and the quantitative aspect (by using stock and flow model). Healthcare managers found this SD approach very easy to apply, and very helpful for enhancing the understanding to the dynamic nature of a complex system.