DETERMINING INPUT COST VARIATIONS FOR SIMULATION-BASED RISK ASSESSMENT OF LIFE CYCLE COSTING

摘要

Simulation has been used extensively for assessing cost and time related risks for complex systems. However, developing the input continues to be a challenge and has historically been based mainly upon subject matter experts. This, as a result, continues to limit its utility. A methodology utilizing Technology Readiness Levels and Integration Readiness Levels to assess the potential variability of the cost elements as input for a simulation based life cycle cost (LCC) assessment is proposed. The current top-down approaches used in costing a system early in the life cycle have proven to be inaccurate and indefensible. Using a bottom's up simulation-based approach to assess risk is a tremendous improvement over the current methodology to determine LCC costs and assess the risk for that estimate.