Methodology for enhancing the assessment of opportunities in renewable Energy Resources with study case

摘要

The aim of this paper is the expeditious evaluation of business opportunities “attractiveness” in renewable Energy Resources - (ER) within a specific geographic area, and using concepts of Integrated Resource Planning Methodology (PIR is Portuguese Acronyms for IRP). The proposed methodology includes “a priori” assessment of ERs also in others dimensions, besides the technical-economical, quantifying and internalizing stakeholders' opinions, therefore offering a rich ground to risk assessments in advance. As a study case, the methodology is applied within the Northwest region of São Paulo State², called Administrative Region of Araçatuba (Portuguese Acronyms RAA)³. The deliverables of the methodology include (i) the main Figures of Economic Merit (FEM) - (Net Present Value, Internal Return Rate and Discounted Payback), evaluated to each resource assessed; (ii) sensitivity analysis on cash flow of technical-economical inputs (parameters used to build the investment cash flow) and finally (iii) it makes recommendations of investments (investment grade or not) to each ER assessed. It is important to point out the ER locacional aspects (Brazil, São Paulo, and RAA) are considered, enriching the methodology. Five⁴ ERs were chosen to be evaluated, all of them renewable: On the energy supply side (generation): Small Hydro Plant (SHP), Wind Farms and Cogeneration using sugarcane biomass as fuel; and on the demand side (final uses/economy measures): replacement of incandescent light bulbs (energy spender) by compact fluorescent ones (energy saver) and replacement of electric showers (energy spender) by water central heating systems (energy saver), inside PIR Urban areas. The only assessed ER that has not received investment grade was Wind Farm.