Method and system for power generation predict day-ahead of wind farm based on mixed physics and data model

摘要

A method and system for estimating the amount of electricity generated by a wind farm a day before based on a physical and data mixed model are provided. A generation amount prediction system according to an embodiment of the present invention, in order to calculate the predicted generation amount for each wind turbine in the wind farm, a physical model and time unit weather data for calculating the generation amount based on the output change of the wind turbine according to the input wind speed a wind turbine mixed model provided with a data model for calculating the predicted power generation amount of the wind turbine according to a weather prediction model for predicting an input wind speed input for each wind turbine; and a wind farm operation model that reflects factors affecting the state and output of the wind turbine in the prediction result of the predicted power generation for each wind turbine. In this way, it comprehensively reflects factors that affect output, such as the wind turbine operation status that varies depending on the type of operation of the park, such as the output limit command and maintenance, and the change in wind caused by the wake in the wind farm, so that a more accurate prediction of the amount of power generation can be achieved. can be done