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SEASONAL PREDICTION METHOD OF TYPHOON FREQUENCY OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA
SEASONAL PREDICTION METHOD OF TYPHOON FREQUENCY OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA
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机译:东海台风频率的季节预测方法
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摘要
PURPOSE: A seasonal prediction method of typhoon frequency over the East China Sea is provided to express the prediction of the typhoon count as the probability value by Bayesian - Poisson revolving method. CONSTITUTION: The probability function is changed by using the Poisson probability distribution by the Bayesian reasoning. All kinds of the variables are calculated by applying the condition of a predetermined to the random variable. Double-cycles are considered. Double-cycles include the peak season from 6 month and 7 month and the expansion season from 6month to 9 month. The prediction of the typhoon count is indicated as the probability value by using the weather variable precursor.
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