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Lifetime demand forecasting method, program, and lifetime demand forecasting device

机译:寿命需求预测方法,程序及寿命需求预测装置

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To predict the lifetime demand of a maintenance component even when any sufficient result value is not prepared.SOLUTION: The lifetime demand prediction device includes: a normalized component quantity demanded calculation part 101 configured to calculate normalized component quantity demanded by converting the number of cumulative product shipping from the start of maintenance of every component to every elapsed year and component quantity demanded per product by a conversion function; a component grouping part 103 configured to classify components into groups; a linear regression formula construction part 104 configured to construct a linear regression formula for predicting the normalized component quantity demanded of every elapsed year following the elapsed (k+1)th year for each group; and a quantity demanded prediction value calculation part 106 configured to specify the group to which a prediction object component input via an input device is belonging, and to calculate the prediction value of the quantity demanded of a component in the prediction object year of the prediction object component by using the linear regression formula calculated by the linear regression formula construction part 104.
机译:解决的问题:即使在没有准备足够的结果值的情况下,也要预测维护部件的寿命要求。解决方案:寿命要求预测装置包括:归一化部件数量需求计算部件101,其配置为通过转换来计算归一化部件数量。从每个组件开始维护到过去的每一年的累计产品运输数量以及转换功能对每个产品所需的组件数量;组件分组部103,用于将组件分类。线性回归公式构成部104,构成为对各组经过第(k + 1)年后的每个过去年度的标准化成分量进行预测的线性回归公式。需求量预测值计算部106,用于确定经由输入装置输入的预测对象成分所属于的组,并计算预测对象的预测对象年中的成分的需求量的预测值。通过使用由线性回归公式构造部分104计算出的线性回归公式来计算分量。

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