Lifetime demand forecasting method, program, and lifetime demand forecasting device

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To predict the lifetime demand of a maintenance component even when any sufficient result value is not prepared.SOLUTION: The lifetime demand prediction device includes: a normalized component quantity demanded calculation part 101 configured to calculate normalized component quantity demanded by converting the number of cumulative product shipping from the start of maintenance of every component to every elapsed year and component quantity demanded per product by a conversion function; a component grouping part 103 configured to classify components into groups; a linear regression formula construction part 104 configured to construct a linear regression formula for predicting the normalized component quantity demanded of every elapsed year following the elapsed (k+1)th year for each group; and a quantity demanded prediction value calculation part 106 configured to specify the group to which a prediction object component input via an input device is belonging, and to calculate the prediction value of the quantity demanded of a component in the prediction object year of the prediction object component by using the linear regression formula calculated by the linear regression formula construction part 104.