Defective phenomenon occurrence prediction device, defect event occurrence prediction method, and program

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a defect event occurrence prediction device capable of predicting a defect event occurrence time without pulling out a furnace wall pipe in a plant including a boiler.SOLUTION: A defect event occurrence prediction device comprises a factor extraction part, a weighting calculating part, an equation derivation part and a defect event occurrence prediction part. The factor extraction part extracts a plurality of factors that are related to occurrence of defect events of a plant in reference to the collected plant data through a statistical analysis. The weighting calculation part calculates a contribution rate of each factor to the occurrence of defect events on the basis of each of the factors extracted by the factor extraction part and presence or non-presence of occurrence of defect events in the plant. The equation derivation part derives the prediction equation for obtaining presence or non-presence of defect events on the basis of each of the factors extracted by the factor extraction part and each of the contribution rates calculated by the weighting calculation part. The defect event occurrence prediction part predicts occurrence of defect events on the basis of the prediction equation calculated by the equation derivation part.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 2