Sources of Fertility Decline in Modern Economic Growth: Is Aggregate Evidence onthe Demographic Transition Credible

摘要

The paper analyzes aggregate evidence and confirms many microeconomic findingsabout the determinants of child mortality and fertility. Based on data for 62 low-income countries in 1972, 1982, and 1988, the educational attainment of adult women is a powerful engine of demographic change, associated with lower levels of child mortality and fertility, and on balance slower population growth. Factors that permit higher levels of calorie consumption per capita, given a country's education and income, are associated with lower levels of child mortality, and Wu-Hausman tests confirm that child mortality is endogenous in exerting its substantial positive effect on fertility. Male education is associated with higher levels of fertility, while income levels from nonhuman capital sources, compared on a purchasing power parity basis per adult, are associated with lower child mortality but higher fertility. Decreases in the share of the labor force employed in agriculture are associated with decreases in fertility.