Economic Analysis of Effects of Business Cycles on the Economy of Cities: The Sensitivity of Income in Cities and Suburbs to National Business Cycle Fluctuations

摘要

This paper examines the impact of national economic cycles on the economies of metropolitan areas. The response of all metropolitan areas in the country to the two business cycles which occurred between 1969 and 1980 are analyzed, and the differential effect of these cycles on the central and suburban portions of metropolitan areas are compared. Sectors in the economy which are significant because of their consistent pattern of intensifying or attenuating income fluctuations during the business cycle are described, and changes in personal income are used to determine the exposure of metropolitan economies to cyclical change. Finally, differences in cyclical exposure between central and suburban areas are examined for both income from jobs located in these areas and for income of area residents. Substantial variation among regions is determined, and suburban area economies are shown to have experienced greater cyclical exposure than central area economies. This result is attributed to suburban areas' industrial composition and the relative sensitivity of industries with suburban locations. One figure and 34 tables are included.