Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Yield: Evaluation of the Efficacity ofDifferent Modeling Approaches

摘要

Increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases areexpected to modify the climate of the earth in the next 50-100 years. Mechanisms of plant response to these changes need to be incorporated in models that predict crop yield to obtain an understanding of the potential consequences of such changes. The objectives of the paper are (1) review climate change predictions and their reliability, (2) review the major hypotheses and/or experimental results regarding rice sensitivity to climate change, and (3) evaluate the suitability of existing rice models for assessing the impact of global climate change on rice production in the rice-growing areas of Asia. A review of physiologically-based rice models (CERES-RICE, MACROS, RICESYS) illustrates their potential to predict possible rice responses to elevated CO2 and increased temperature. Both MACROS and CERES responses to temperature and CO2 agrees with recent experimental data from Baker et al. RICESYS is an ecosystem model which predicts herbivory and inter-species competition between rice and weeds but does not include CO2 effects. Its response to increasing temperature also agrees with experimental findings. Models using empirical relationships between climate and yield have been used to predict country-scare changes following climate change. Their simplicity is an asset for continental-scale assessments but the climatic effects are often overshadowed by stronger technological or political effects. In conclusion, each modeling approach has its value. Researchers should choose or build the most appropriate model for their projects' objectives.