Electric Power Supply and Demand 1977--1986 as Projected by the Regional Electric Reliability Councils in Their April 1, 1977 Responses to FPC Order 383-4 Docket R-362

摘要

The council projections of peak demand, generating capability, and electric energy requirements for the contiguous United States have declined for the third consecutive year. On the basis of these projections, it appears that the electric utility industry believes the United States will not again experience the large annual increases, in electric power use, of past decades. If projected loads are not exceeded, if projected capability levels are actually attained, if fuel requirements are satisfied, and if no more than the normal contingencies are experienced, electric power supply is expected to be adequate for the next decade. However, Commission staff is not satisfied that the projected reserve margins will be attained, nor that adequate fuel will be available when needed. Completion of generating units and transmission facilities is beset by difficulties related to financing, environmental pressures, and procedural delays. Nuclear generating capacity, for instance, is projected by the council reports as increasing by the addition of some 131,000 MW in 121 new units, in the period 1977 to 1986, but the Nuclear Regulatory Commission projects an increase of only about 90,000 MW in 84 units. The difference of 41,000 MW represents a significant decrease in available capabiity for the decade 1977 to 1986. If the NRC projection proves correct, and the projected demands materialize, the 21.4% reserve margin forecast for summer 1986 would be reduced to 14.9%. This reserve level is considered too low to assure adequate and reliable electric power supply, nationally. (ERA citation 03:024313)