Seismic Hazard Analysis. Volume 4: Application of Methodology, Results, and Sensitivity Studies

摘要

As part of the Site Specific Spectra Project, this report seeks to identify the sources of and minimize uncertainty in estimates of seismic hazards in the Eastern United States. Findings are being used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to develop a synthesis among various methods that can be used in evaluating seismic hazard at the various plants in the Eastern United States. In this volume, one of a five-volume series, the application of the probabilistic approach using expert opinion is discussed. The seismic hazard is developed at nine sites in Central and Northeastern United States, and both individual experts' and synthesis results are obtained. Also discussed and evaluated are the ground motion models used to develop the seismic hazard at the various sites, analyzing extensive sensitivity studies to determine the important parameters and the significance of uncertainty in them. Comparisons are made between probabilisitc and real spectra for a number of Eastern earthquakes. The uncertainty in the real spectra is examined as a function of the key earthquake source parameters.