Nuclear Energy Readiness Indicator Index (NERI): A Benchmarking Tool for Assessing Nuclear Capacity in Developing Countries

摘要

Declining natural resources, rising oil prices, looming climate change and the introduction of nuclear energy partnerships, such as GNEP, have reinvigorated global interest in nuclear energy. The convergence of such issues has prompted countries to move ahead quickly to deal with the challenges that lie ahead. However, developing countries, in particular, often lack the domestic infrastructure and public support needed to implement a nuclear energy program in a safe, secure, and nonproliferation-conscious environment. How might countries become ready for nuclear energy. What is needed is a framework for assessing a country's readiness for nuclear energy. This paper suggests that a Nuclear Energy Readiness Indicator (NERI) Index might serve as a meaningful basis for assessing a country's status in terms of progress toward nuclear energy utilization under appropriate conditions. The NERI Index is a benchmarking tool that measures a country's level of 'readiness' for nonproliferation-conscious nuclear energy development. NERI first identifies 8 key indicators that have been recognized by the International Atomic Energy Agency as key nonproliferation and security milestones to achieve prior to establishing a nuclear energy program. It then measures a country's progress in each of these areas on a 1-5 point scale. In doing so NERI illuminates gaps or underdeveloped areas in a country's nuclear infrastructure with a view to enable stakeholders to prioritize the allocation of resources toward programs and policies supporting international nonproliferation goals through responsible nuclear energy development. On a preliminary basis, the indicators selected include: (1) demonstrated need; (2) expressed political support; (3) participation in nonproliferation and nuclear security treaties, international terrorism conventions, and export and border control arrangements; (4) national nuclear-related legal and regulatory mechanisms; (5) nuclear infrastructure; (6) the utilization of IAEA technical assistance; (7) participation in regional arrangements; and (8) public support for nuclear power. In this paper, the Index aggregates the indicators and evaluates and compares the level of readiness in seven countries that have recently expressed various degrees of interest in establishing a nuclear energy program. The NERI Index could be a valuable tool to be utilized by: (1) country officials who are considering nuclear power; (2) the international community, desiring reassurance of a country's capacity for the peaceful, safe, and secure use of nuclear energy; (3) foreign governments/NGO's, seeking to prioritize and direct resources toward developing countries; and (4) private stakeholders interested in nuclear infrastructure investment opportunities.