Prospects for Nuclear Power Development in the Medium Term (Up to 2000)

摘要

There were at the end of 1985 374 nuclear power plants, with a total capacity of 250 GW(e), in operation in the world. In energy, nuclear power plants accounted for some 14% of the world's electricity generation during 1985. Relatively high reserve capacities, uncertainties about future rates of growth in demand and financial constraints in most market economy countries seem to be the major reasons for the continuing low rate of ordering of new nuclear power plants. This may cause severe problems for the nuclear industry in the second half of this decade and may constrain the electricity supply during the 1990s, particularly in view of the possible decrease of new orders for fossil-fuelled plants also, which is at least partly due to increasing concern about the environmental impact of such plants. To meet even a low estimate of worldwide nuclear capacity of 505 GW(e), corresponding to a 13% nuclear share of the total electricity generating capacity (but providing about 20% of the total electrical energy production), by the year 2000, some 125-150 GW(e) will have to be ordered between now and the early 1990s. The addition of this capacity appears reasonable in light of the fact that about the same increase will occur during 1985-1990. The developing countries will need to add some 600-800 GW(e) of generating capacity during the next 15 years, increasing their total installed capacity by a factor of 2.3 to 2.8. The IAEA estimates that, realistically, only some 35-75 GW(e) of these capacity additions up to 2000 would likely be with nuclear power plants. Thus, it is clear that, although nuclear power will be important in a few developing countries, most of the electricity needs in the developing world will continue to be met by other energy sources. 8 tables. (ERA citation 12:028567)