Applying New Methods to Flare Prediction II: Realization of Methods for Photospheric Vector Magnetic Field Data and Their Extension into the Chromosphere

摘要

The goals for this AFOSR contract focused on analysis and interpretation of solar magnetic field data in the context of solar flare prediction. Drs. Leka (P.I), Barnes and Metcalf (with collaborators) have been productive in all respects; our quantitative, physics-based statistical approaches are gaining wide recognition and proving quite powerful. We showed that using daily magnetograms produces forecasts which compare favorably to those from NOAA. However, unless temporal evolution is explicitly observed and considered, the daily results provide limited value-added to a null or 'no flare' forecast. Time-series photospheric data may distinguish flare-imminent from flare-quiet epochs, and when such data are used to model and parameterize the evolving coronal magnetic topology, forecast performance may improve considerably. The plausibility that the magnetic kink instability is a trigger mechanism for energetic events was re-examined using a new and more solar- appropriate technique for measuring the twist in solar magnetic fields. Finally, acquisition and interpretation of chromospheric magnetic field data continued, including direct measure of the magnetic free energy in super active-region NOAA 10486. Throughout, we maintained high visibility within the technical community, with 8 published/submitted papers, 3 anticipated, 13 invited seminars, and over twenty other interactions including contributions to professional meetings.