Development of a Planning Methodology for the Medical Protection of European Civilian Populations in Time of War or Major Civil Disasters

摘要

This is a preliminary investigation of the feasibility of using simulation models to develop plans for the medical protection of European civilian populations in time of war or other major disasters. First, the functions required of a planning methodology were identified, such as estimating resource requirements, predicting casualty dispositions, and evaluating alternative disaster response procedures. Next, for each of two disaster management scenarios, the study described the basic elements or factors which describe the disaster management system: the primary action required of the system, criteria of success, quantifiable measures of success, and relevant data. Both scenarios considered ground and air assault by the enemy, using conventional weapons. In the first scenario, the civilian response is to stay-put, i.e., the civilian population remains in place. The second scenario considers the controlled temporary dispersal or relocation of civilians residing in high-risk areas. Both scenarios appear to be amenable to detailed study using the concepts of the U.S. Navy's NAMES (Navy Amphibious Medical Evacuation Simulation) model and WWMMSS (World-Wide Military Medical Support System) model, in concert with wargaming models and traffic network models.