Impact of Water Scarcity on Egyptian National Security and on Regional Security in the Nile River Basin.

摘要

With a rapidly growing population, increased urbanization, higher standards of living, and an agricultural policy that emphasizes expanded production to feed the growing masses, the Government of Egypt finds itself in a critical situation in which both internal planning and regional and international cooperation are paramount for making optimum use of this incredibly scarce resource. Egypt, and the rest of the Nile Basin countries, have been sharing water under the 'original' 1929 Treaty provisions, which were amended only in 1959. With the transformation of government in Egypt, as well as the rise of new actors (such as South Sudan), planning objectives and management procedures must factor in the needs of not only the people of Egypt, but also the concerns of key regional actors, particularly Ethiopia and Sudan. As water in Egypt becomes scarce, surface-water sources originating from the Nile River Basin now make it a 'potential flashpoint' in Africa as multiple countries compete for access to this precious resource. The possibility of a so- called 'water war' is indeed a tremendous threat to Egyptian National Security. This thesis will examine the stresses placed on this diminishing resource (i.e., the supply and demand for water in the region), and explore the need for improved international and cooperative planning and management procedures that will better appropriate, allocate, and optimize the use of water in this region. Such procedures will bolster Egypt's internal development and strengthen its external ties and stability.