Climatic Trends of Variable Temperate Environment: A Complete Time Series Analysis during 1980-2020

摘要

The western Himalayan region is susceptible to minor climate changes because of its fragile ecology, which might threaten the valley's prestigious ecosystems and socio-economic components. The Himalayas's local climate and weather are vulnerable to and interlinked with world-scale climatic changes since the region's hydrology is predominantly dominated by snow and glaciers. The Himalayas, notably the Jammu and Kashmir region in the western Himalayas, has clearly shown distinct and robust evidence of climate change. This study used observed data to examine the climatic variability and trends of change in precipitation and temperature for the Kashmir valley between 1980 and 2020. Gulmarg, Pahalgam, Kokernag, Qazigund, Kupwara, and Srinagar (Shalimar) meteorological stations in the Kashmir valley were studied in detail for long- and short-term as well as localized fluctuations in temperature and precipitation. The annual temperature and precipitation fluctuations were calculated using Sen's slope approach, and the sloping trend was determined using linear regression. The research showed statistically insignificant growing trends in maximum and minimum temperatures throughout the Kashmir valley. The average annual temperature in the Kashmir valley increased by 1.55 degrees C during the last 41 years (from 1980 to 2020), with a higher rise in maximum and minimum temperature by 2.00 and 1.10 degrees C, respectively. However, precipitation showed a non-significant decreasing trend concerning time series analysis over 1980 to 2020 in Kashmir valley. Results of annual average maximum temperature at all the stations revealed that Pahalgam (2.2 degrees C), Kokernag (1.8 degrees C), and Kupwara (1.8 degrees C) displayed a steep upsurge and statistically significant trends; however, annual average minimum temperature followed an increasing trend from 1980 to 2020 at all the stations except Shalimar. However, non-significant declining trends in precipitation were recorded at all the locations in Kashmir valley. This changing pattern of temperature and precipitation could have significant environmental consequences, affecting the western Himalayan region's food security and ecological sustainability.