Probabilistic based integrated pipeline management system

摘要

Accurate prediction of pipeline structural and functional deterioration plays an essential role in the pipeline management process and investment planning at both project and network levels. The investigation described in this paper is primarily concerned with development of systematic concepts of pipeline management system. At present, there are still research needs for improving on the existing models and developing new methodologies of pipeline performance prediction. This paper describes the development of a probabilistic based, integrated pipeline management system, which can assist municipal engineers to make strategic investment decisions when programming pipeline maintenance and rehabilitation projects for the preservation of a pipeline network. The system developed has three major components: (1) development of standard pipe condition rating system, (2) using non-homogenous (i.e., time-related) Markovian prediction models to forecast pipeline deterioration, and (3) utilizing cost-effectiveness based prioritization program to select the optimal multi-year pipeline maintenance and rehabilitation projects.