Trend analysis for the commercial future of remote sensing

摘要

Satellite remote sensing is often presented as having future commercial potential, but this is rarely quantified. This paper analyses the factors that influence the supply and demand for data and the methods through which commercialization can be encouraged. Growth in commercialization requires that sufficient numbers of satellites are launched to maintain operations, that an open-skies policy is maintained and satellite instruments generate a balance between data continuity and innovative new data products. The demand for source data is extremely price-sensitive and growth in commercial applications is hindered by poor turnaround times for the delivery of processed data. A review of image sales and receiving station licence revenues has been undertaken for the SPOT and Landsat systems. Over the 1972-1985 period, sales have shown an upward trend, but with quarterly figures showing great variations related to product price increases. Averaging figures over three consecutive years reveals mean growth was 13#xB7;5 per cent per year. The global market for sales of Landsat and SPOT data in 1986 was about US$23 million. This does not include the turnover of the value-added industry, but this cannot be directly offset against investment in satellite development and operations programmes. The global value-added industry is estimated to be about US$110 million per year (turnover), around one-third of which is related to image processing and data handling systems sales. Several new technology developments have been identified that may contribute to step functions in the commercial demand for remotely-sensed data. It is recommended that the lead time for new instruments to be developed and launched should be shortened to encourage the development of commercially innovative instruments. The revenues from image sales and ground station licence fees represent only around 0#xB7;9-3#xB7;8 per cent of the annual global costs of the satellite system (construction costs, launch, operations, data processing, etc.). By the year 2000, assuming 20 per cent per annum market growth, the return would increase to somewhere in the range of 10-40 per cent. This is a significant increase in commercial return and should be positively encouraged. If the environment to promote commercialization is favourably maintained, past trends indicate that there will be an increasingly significant commercial future for remote sensing.