Analysis of Change in the Precipitation Regime on the Territory of the Russian Federation in the Second Half of the 20th Century and the Early 21st Century Using Bayesian Estimation of Markov Chain Parameters

摘要

Bayesian estimation using the binary Markov chain parameters is conducted for the changes in the probabilities of homogeneous transitions as a model of change in the temporal precipitation regime for the territory of Russia in the years 2000-2019 in comparison with the years 1966-1985. These probabilities reliably change over a significant part of the territory of Russia, and, in most cases, there is an increase in the probability of homogeneous transitions 0 - 0 and a decrease in the probability of homogeneous transitions 1 - 1, which can be related to the increasing and decreasing duration of continuous periods without and with precipitation, respectively. The maps of the spatial distribution of these changes are plotted, and its non-randomness is proven.