Iceberg-Induced Tsunamis Near Dalk Glacier, Antarctica

摘要

A unique local tsunami had a very large impact on the coastal stations near Dalk Glacier; this kind of tsunami is related to iceberg activity. To provide a reference for tsunami warning and disaster prevention at these coastal research stations, a total of 41 abnormal water-surface oscillations caused by iceberg-induced tsunamis have been recorded and analyzed since February 2010. The seasonal and interannual variations in the tsunamis were determined by analyzing meteorological data and Landsat imagery. Based on these variation characteristics, double exponential smoothing was employed to fit the historical records and predict the next occurrence of an iceberg-induced tsunami, including the time and maximum absolute value of elevation of water-surface oscillation. The results showed that the date prediction error could be within a week, and the mean relative error of prediction for the elevation of water-surface oscillation was approximately 36.8%. Despite instability of prediction accuracies, this study provides an important clue to iceberg-induced tsunami warning and disaster prevention at coastal stations near calving glaciers, as well as for safe berthing and unloading of research vessels near these stations.