Bio-economic modeling of land use and forest degradation at watershed level in Nepal

摘要

This paper develops a non-linear,bio-economic model for analyzing the system behavior in terms of land use changes and forest degradation processes. The model is applied at a watershed level in Mardi, Nepal, to investigate the effects of alternate policy scenarios relating to the introduction of agricultural technology represented through high yielding varieties of paddy and maize; reduction in population growth rate, and increase in the prices of major agricultural crops. The model horizon extends from 2000 to 2025. The results showed that while technological improvements and increase in crop prices increase cropped area, reduced population had the opposite effect. Reduced population growth rate, and increased prices for major agricultural crops led to overall reduction in forest degradation. The study, therefore, concludes that family planning policies aimed at reduction of population growth and increase in prices of major agricultural crops can be effective policy instruments for slowing down the process of forest degradation or even in reversing it completely to regeneration.