MODELING HERBICIDE MOVEMENT TO GROUND WATER IN IRRIGATED SANDY SOILS OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY, CALIFORNIA

摘要

A semi-empirical probabilistic transport model was developed to simulate simazine and diuron well water concentrations in an agriculturally intensive coarse soil region of Fresno County, California. Model inputs included five random variables: the organic carbon normalized soil adsorption coefficient, root zone degradation, application rate, depth to ground water, and ground water recharge age. Transport was simulated in two phases: initial transport through the root zone using the mechanistic model LEACHM, and a second empirically-based phase that simulated transport from the bottom of the root zone to the water table, and ultimately to domestic water wells. Best-fit calibration estimates for combined deep vadose/shallow ground water degradation half-lives were 330 d and 455 d for simazine and diuron, respectively. Simulations based on these fitted half-lives yielded coefficients of determination and root mean square errors of 0.973 and 0.993, and 0.367 and 0.364 for observed vs predicted simazine and diuron concentration percentiles, respectively. The calibrated model output also described the observed relationships of decreasing detection frequency and decreasing concentration with increasing depth to ground water. A novel contribution is the calculation of regional mass budgets for the herbicides. In modeling results, 9-54% and 2-16% (10th-90th percentiles) of applied simazine and diuron, respectively, leached out of the 1.5 m root zone, while the upper 10th percentile of well water concentrations corresponded to approximately 1-2% of application for both pesticides.