Dynamic modelling of Australian rooftop solar photovoltaic product stewardship transition

摘要

As rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) adoption in Australia is exponentially growing in the past decade, there is a need to promote effective product stewardship for PV panels reaching their end-of-life (EoL). This paper presents the development of a System Dynamics (SD) model for managing EoL rooftop PV panels based on the circular economy concept. Four stages of the SD modelling process include problem scoping and variable identification, model conceptualisation, SD model development, and scenario analysis. Stakeholder engagement is central to this research as the system under study is underpinned by high uncertainties and limited data availability. Four socio-technical transition pathways examined in this study include market-driven growth, conservative development, shared responsibility, and disruptive change. The simulation results indicated an improvement of collection and recovery performance when a stringent product stewardship scheme is enabled and improvement of installers' participation in the collection program. This study argued that a system of shared responsibility will be capable of balancing techno-economic motivations of stakeholders across the supply chain to participate in the recovery scheme, while being less disruptive to PV adoption. Under this scenario, a gradual change in regulatory requirements (e.g. recovery target and material recovery rate requirements) is introduced to allow a period of industry and market development.