A joint model of destination and mode choice for urban trips: a disaggregate approach

摘要

Trip destination and mode choice are highly influenced by travelers' perceptions and behaviors; selecting a destination and a vehicle for a trip are two interdependent problems. This paper presents and applies a disaggregate joint model for traveler destination and mode choice. The choice model uses fuzzy set and probability theory to deal with the uncertainty embedded in travelers' perceptions and behaviors. The model is structured as a decision tree in which the fuzzy and non-fuzzy classification of influential variables regarding destination selection and mode choice expand the tree. The most influential explanatory variables among all the variables categorized for travelers' household, trip, and living zone specifications are selected based on the maximizing information. An aggregation method is designed to provide aggregate estimates for transportation planning based on the suggested disaggregate choice model. A data-set of over 9000 home-based morning peak-hour trips in Shiraz, a large city in Iran, is used for model construction and evaluation. When compared with a multinomial logit (MNL) model, the suggested models' estimates are more accurate than the traditional MNL model.