A time series analysis of the dynamic competition between major cargo airports

摘要

This paper models the dynamic competition between major cargo airports from the time series perspectives of long-term equilibriums and short-run dynamics. We first apply a unit root test to examine the stationarity of cargo throughput data. Airports are then analysed pairwise by region to test their equilibrium relationships through cointegration analysis. Meanwhile, we also utilise the error correction model to investigate the short-run impacts of cargo traffic between the airports. According to our findings, there are four positive long-term equilibriums, one positive short-run dynamic and three negative short-run dynamics in Asia. In addition, the airports in North America are found to have four positive long-term equilibriums, three negative long-run equilibriums, seven positive short-run impacts and three negative short-run impacts. As these dynamic relationships imply competition between cargo airports, our study can provide airport authorities with the reference to develop their long-term strategies and short-run operational plans.