The future of trucking technology in Brazil: results of a technology forecasting model

摘要

The aim of this article is to identify a set of technological events related to the Brazilian truck fleet that are well placed hierarchically regarding their possibility of occurrence and pertinence for the horizon year of 2021. For this we propose and apply a Technology Forecasting Model for trucks (called TFM/Trucks) based on the Delphi technique, considering 28 technological events associated with six internal forecasting dimensions: safety, efficient use of energy and alternative fuels, materials technology, operational schemes, comfort and environment. The ranking of the technological events, considering hypothetical situations for analysis, indicate significant concern over the safety dimension, with four of the five events (passive safety and active safety) classified among the 10 events with the greatest chance of occurring and pertinence, irrespective of the panelists' degree of specialization. The environmental dimension, with respect to the predominance of electric powered trucks with lower level of atmospheric pollutants, was always in one of the first two positions, regardless of the situation studied. In the final ranking, the five best-classified events represented the dimensions of safety, environment, materials technology and comfort, with environment and passive safety predominating.