Development and validation of a direct mode choice model

摘要

A direct discrete mode choice model is introduced using relative attributes of competing modes as well as socioeconomic characteristics of travelers. The model is calibrated and validated for two available historic databases in the Dallas-Fort Worth region. The validation is conducted against the outputs of a current nested logit model used by the regional planning organization as well as the observed values based on transit ridership surveys for a newly inaugurated commuter rail service. The calibrated model is applied after the introduction of this new transit mode. The results show that the estimated mode shares by the proposed model have a statistically better consistency with the observed values than the estimates of the conventional nested logit model. Unlike the logit model, the structure of the direct model based on relative attributes also has the advantage of not needing recalibration each time a new travel mode is introduced. The model is found to be easier to calibrate and produces more accurate results than the nested logit model, commonly used by many metropolitan planning organizations.