Evaluating transport infrastructure decisions under uncertainty

摘要

This study uses a hybrid approach, combining cost-benefit analysis (CBA), multiple criteria decision analysis, and Dempster-Shafer Theory, to evaluate transport infrastructure decisions. This approach not only retains the advantages of CBA, but it also facilitates the incorporation of incomplete information into the evaluation process. A particular advantage of this hybrid approach is that it can synthesize evaluation results into an easily understood unit, namely utility. A case study of Taiwan's Tamsui-Taipei Riverside Highway Project is used to illustrate the evaluation method. The evaluation results show that, whereas government officials and city council members support the highway project, academic researchers oppose it. Overall, the decision group tends to positively approve this transport infrastructure investment. These results also reflect the actual situation in Taiwan as stakeholders grapple with the issues arising from the proposed Tamsui-Taipei Riverside Highway Project.