Estimating the long-term effects of different passenger car technologies on energy/fuel consumption and emissions of greenhouse gases in Europe

摘要

This paper estimates the prospective long-term effects of innovative and new passenger car technologies such as hybrid vehicles, battery electric vehicles, hydrogen vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles on energy/fuel consumption and related emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in a given region - Europe. For such purposes, a methodology for estimating these effects is developed consisting of three models: (1) a model for determining the volumes of passenger car use; (2) a model for calculating energy consumption of particular passenger car technologies; and (3) a model for quantifying emissions of GHG by these passenger car technologies under given conditions. The methodology is applied to the region of the 27 Member States of the European Union using the 'what-if?' scenario approach. Results include estimates of the annual and cumulative quantities of GHGs in terms of carbon dioxide equivalents emitted under the given scenarios.