Long-term Growth Perspectives and Economic Convergence of CEE and SEE Countries

摘要

The paper first investigates the main drivers of economic growth and real convergence in CEE and SEE Countries. In the theoretical framework provided by the growth-accounting approach, both are shown to be driven by capital accumulation and total factor productivity changes, with the latter making however a major contribution. The nominal convergence path towards the Eurozone is then analysed. Despite considerable results obtained in the last decade, most EU new members are still found to face severe challenges in the process of converging towards Maastricht criteria. The need to reconcile exchange rate stability with inflation convergence is in particular seen to be at the heart of their de facto decision to delay the EMU entry date until a higher degree of real convergence will have been achieved.