A Novel Colored Fluid Stochastic Petri Net Simulation Model for Reliability Evaluation of Wind/PV/Diesel Small Isolated Power Systems

摘要

This paper introduces a new general methodology for the modeling and reliability evaluation of small isolated power systems, which include wind turbines, photovoltaics, and diesel generators, based on fluid stochastic Petri nets (FSPNs). The proposed methodology presents two major novelties in FSPN modeling, namely: 1) the introduction of a new kind of Petri net arc, called the database arc, which makes possible the direct import of real data in the simulation process; and 2) the selection of constant time intervals in FSPN modeling, instead of assuming continuous dynamics defined by the change of fluid level over time. Moreover, in order to construct the overall system model, this paper proposes a general framework for modular representation of the system under study following a number of well-defined steps. The obtained model is fully parameterized and compared to classical simulation methods, it provides to its user the additional advantage of graphical representation of system's components and attributes. Four scenarios, which describe power system's performance under different conditions, were implemented. For each one of the developed scenarios, nine reliability and performance indexes have been calculated and compared.