STATISTICAL MODELLING OF THE SHRINKAGE BEHAVIOUR OF SOUTH AFRICAN CONCRETES

摘要

A model for the time-dependent shrinkage profiles of South African concretes has been developed from historical laboratory data by hierarchical non-linear modelling. A database of all the available results of laboratory studies on concrete shrinkage carried out in South Africa was used to identify the most appropriate growth curve model for individual shrinkage profiles. The parameters of this growth curve model, fitted to each shrinkage profile individually, were then modelled in terms of suitable covariates, viz. the composition of the concrete, its other engineering properties as well as shrinkage test conditions. Use of this model to predict concrete shrinkage in South Africa is discussed.