Stochastic generation of synthetic minutely irradiance time series derived from mean hourly weather observation data

摘要

Synthetic minutely irradiance time series are utilised in non-spatial solar energy system research simulations. It is necessary that they accurately capture irradiance fluctuations and variability inherent in the solar resource. This article describes a methodology to generate a synthetic minutely irradiance time series from widely available hourly weather observation data. The weather observation data are used to produce a set of Markov chains taking into account seasonal, diurnal, and pressure influences on transition probabilities of cloud cover. Cloud dynamics are based on a power-law probability distribution, from which cloud length and duration are derived. Atmospheric transmission losses are simulated with minutely variability, using atmospheric profiles from meteorological reanalysis data and cloud attenuation derived real-world observations. Both direct and diffuse irradiance are calculated, from which total irradiance is determined on an arbitrary plane. The method is applied to the city of Leeds, UK, and validated using independent hourly radiation measurements from the same site. Variability and ramp rate are validated using 1-min resolution irradiance data from the town of Cambourne, Cornwall, UK. The hourly irradiance frequency distribution correlates with R-2 = 0.996 whilst the mean hourly irradiance correlates with R-2 = 0.971, the daily variability indices cumulative probability distribution function (CDF), 1-min irradiance ramp rate CDF and 1-min irradiance frequency CDF are also shown to correlate with R-2 = 0.9903, 1.000, and 0.9994 respectively. Kolmogorov Smirnov tests on 1-min data for each day show that the ramp rate frequency of occurrence is captured with a high significance level of 99.99%, whilst the irradiance frequency distribution and minutely variability indices are captured at significances of 99% and 97.5% respectively. The use of multiple Markov chains and detailed consideration of the atmospheric losses are shown to be essential elements for the generation of realistic minutely irradiance time series over a typical meteorological year. A freely downloadable example of the model is made available and may be configured to the particular requirements of users or incorporated into other models. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.