A quantified study method and its application to sustainable management of water resources in arid basins

摘要

According to the features of the basins in arid areas, in this paper a quantified study framework of sustainable management of water resources is developed, and the contents include mainly the quantification rules, index system, basic models and quantification method. A quantified study method (M-D method) about sustainable management of water resources is put forward based on the simulation and integrative development degree. In the method, the fuzzy subordinatness description and the multi-rule integration are used to calculate the integrative development degree so as to quantitatively describe the sustainable development degree of economic society; the mathematical simulation is used to quantitatively describe the interactions between water resources, economic society and ecosystems so as to lay a foundation for quantitatively giving expression to the development situation of economic society related to the management of water resources; based on the organic combination of these two, quantification rules and other constraint conditions, a quantified model of water resources management is developed. The M-D method is applied to developing a scientific scheme of water resources management in the Bosten Lake Basin, Xinjiang, China.