Predicting optimal habitats of Haloxylon persicum for ecosystem restoration using ensemble ecological niche modeling under climate change in southeast Iran

摘要

Ecological restoration plays a vital role in the management of degraded ecosystems; nevertheless, the success of restoration plans depends to a large extent on determining optimal habitats for target species' growth and survival. Ecological niche modeling can be used to predict where climate is presently suitable for a particular species used in restoration, and where suitable climates will be located in the future. Here, we used ensemble ecological modeling to identify areas suitable for restoration of the arid shrub Haloxylon persicum in southeast Iran. We generated environmental suitability predictions for H. persicum restorations from eight different niche modeling algorithms and averaged these predictions to generate an ensemble model prediction. We present projections for the climate suitability of H. persicum for the present climate and the years 2050 and 2070 under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios and for three different global circulation models. Our model projected the optimum mean annual temperature for this species to be between 35.5 and 37 degrees C, the optimum temperature of the coldest quarter to be between 3.5 and 13 degrees C and the optimum precipitation of the coldest quarter to be between 65 to 90 mm. Based on our results, H. persicum is predicted to persist north of 27 degrees N latitude in southeast Iran under current and future conditions; however, the availability of habitat suitable for H. persicum restoration is expected to dramatically diminish under future climate change. This study will help identify and prioritize locations for ecological restoration of this species in the face of climate change.