Evaluating the Relationship between the Energy Consumption and the Macroeconomic Indicators

摘要

This study aims to evaluate the relationship between the energy consumption and macro-economic variables in order to explain the relationship between the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation, Economic growth and employment and the energy consumption during 1360 to 1390. This study is applied based on the purpose and the library type based on the data collection and among the correlation studies based on the method and are seeking to explain the relationship and calculation of correlation rate and coefficients of each independent variables with the energy consumption by using econometric models. Data and information needed for the research are collected based on document library studies and information related to research variables by referring to the websites of Central Bank and Statistical Center of Iran. First, the significant relationship between the independent and dependent variables was studied by Pearson correlation coefficient test and then the reliability determining tests, such as the Dickey-Fuller unit root test, were used in order to determine the reliability or stability of variables used in various forms. The accuracy test of classical assumptions was done for estimated functions and assurance of desired estimations accuracy and assurance of estimated relationship and long-term and balance coefficients of independent variables. Evaluation of stability (Durability or reliability) of variables was done by E Views software and the statistics R~2, F and Durbin-Watson were used in the analysis as the outputs of software. The tests of classical assumptions accuracy and residual term reliability were done after estimating the model in order ensure the accuracy of regression results and implementing the relations and coefficients in the long term. Consequently, by conducting this study it was found that there is a significant correlation between the macroeconomic indicators (GDP, CPI, Economic growth and employment) and the energy consumption.