Groundwater vulnerability in Europe under climate change

摘要

The present contribution aimed to propose a method to determine the groundwater vulnerability to climate change at spatial scale of Europe. This approach combines the aquifers geology, terrain morphology, and quality monitoring status of Nitrate (NO3) and Arsenic (As) with the environmental data of climate and land cover to generate the groundwater vulnerability map of Europe. High-resolution climate models and land cover were the basis of the groundwater models construction in different temporal windows periods. Geographical Information Systems (GIS) technology was used for multi-layers analysis, groundwater vulnerability calculation, and model validation. Intense agriculture in many regions contributes to increase of chemicals concentration in groundwater. By the 'New Implemented Spatial-Temporal On Regions-Groundwater Vulnerability' (NISTOR-GWV) Index, a complex methodology was applied including the quantity (water availability, potential infiltration map) and quality (aquifers data, land cover, quality monitoring points) approaches layers. Crosscovariance Cloud, General QQPlot, and double pixel pairs moving window (DPPMW) methods were used to calibrate and validate the construction model of NISTOR-GWV Index. The areas with high and very high groundwater vulnerability classes spread in the central and northwestern side of Europe, South of British Islands, agricultural areas and large plains territories (North European Plain, Po Plain, Romanian Plain), while in the mountains and hilly areas, the medium, low and very low vulnerability was identified. Significant improvement in the spatial groundwater vulnerability modelling could be achieved, on long-term period at continental scale, with contribution for management strategies and plans in hydrology and environmental fields.