Response of glacial-lake outburst floods to climate change in the Yarkant River basin on northern slope of Karakoram Mountains, China

摘要

Based on the glacial flood events and climate change in the Yarkant River basin during the past 50 years, the study investigated the long-term change of temperature and precipitation, the characteristics of glacial floods, the origin of sudden flood release, the suggested flood mechanism of glacial lakes and the relationship between glacial floods and climate change. Results showed that there was an obvious increase in the temperature of the basin since 1987. Specifically in the mountainous area, the significantly increasing temperature in the summer and autumn seasons accelerated the melting rate of glaciers and caused glacial-lake burst. Sudden flood release occurred frequently. The frequency of glacial-lake outburst floods was 0.4 times/a during the period 1959-1986 and increased to 0.7 times/a during 1997-2006. Peak discharge also increased. There were seven floods with peak discharge over 4000 m3/s from 1959-2006, and three occurred after 1997. The increasing frequency and magnitude of glacial outburst floods mirrored the effect of climate warming on glaciers.