Quantitatively evaluating the effects of CO_2 emission on temperature rise

摘要

This study quantitatively evaluated the effect of carbon dioxide emissions (CDE) on temperature change in five regions and globally through an elasticity coefficient method. The results revealed that for the period 1960-2008, the sensitivity of temperature to CO_2 emission in North America was the highest with an elasticity coefficient of 0.317; South America was the lowest with elasticity of 0.005. The contribution of CO_2 to temperature rise in North America and Oceania are the largest during 1990-2008, reaching 57.8% and 51.5% respectively. The contribution rates in Asia, South America, and Africa were 43.7%, 38.9%, and 34.2%, respectively. For the period 1960-2010, the temperature elasticity values of the entire world in relation to CDE are 0.0213, indicating that a 100% change in CDE will result in a 2.13% change in global temperature. It is estimated that CDE is responsible for 50.2% of the global temperature increase during 1990-2010, which in turn leads to the implication that CDE is the important reason for global warming.