Variation of water resources in the Huang-huai-hai areas and adaptive strategies to climate change

摘要

Water resources play a principal role in supporting environment. Climate change will challenge the current water resources management practices and threaten water security through acceleration of the hydrological cycle. Historical variation of recorded runoff on main streams and influence of climate change on water resources in the Huang-huai-hai area (including the Yellow River, Hai River, and the Huai River) were analyzed with statistical methods and a hydrological simulation approach. Results indicate that the recorded runoff showed a significant decreasing trend during past 50 years for the Hai River and the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River, with insignificant change occurring in the Huai River basin and the upstream of the Yellow River basin. Temperature was projected to steadily rise in the next 30-50 years while precipitation was expected to increase slightly. Water resources in 2021-2050 under the three scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 were estimated to change -1.3%, 1.0% and -2.3% relative to the reference period of 1961-1990, respectively. The water shortage for the Huang-huai- hai area might be aggravated due to climate change. It is therefore of significance to enhance water saving construction, make full use of non- traditional water sources, and speed up water conservancy project planning and implementation for adaptation to climate change. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.