Numerical Simulation of Andhra Severe Cyclone (2003): Model Sensitivity to the Boundary Layer and Convection Parameterization

摘要

The Andhra severe cyclonic storm (2003) is simulated to study its evolution, structure, intensity and movement using the Penn State/NCAR non-hydrostatic mesoscale atmospheric model MM5. The model is used with three interactive nested domains at 81, 27 and 9 km resolutions covering the Bay of Bengal and adjoining Indian Peninsula. The performance of the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) and convective parameterization on the simulated features of the cyclone is studied by conducting sensitivity experiments. Results indicate that while the boundary layer processes play a significant role in determining both the intensity and movement, the convective processes especially control the movement of the model storm. The Mellor-Yamada scheme is found to yield the most intensive cyclone. While the combination of Mellor-Yamada (MY) PBL and Kain-Fritsch 2 (KF2) convection schemes gives the most intensive storm, the MRF PBL with KF2 convection scheme produces the best simulation in terms of intensity and track. Results of the simulation with the combination of MRF scheme for PBL and KF2 for convection show the evolution and major features of a mature tropical storm. The model has very nearly simulated the intensity of the storm though slightly overpredicted. Simulated core vertical temperature structure, winds at different heights, vertical winds in and around the core, vorticity and divergence fields at the lower and upper levels—all support the characteristics of a mature storm. The model storm has moved towards the west of the observed track during the development phase although the location of the storm in the initial and final phases agreed with the observations. The simulated rainfall distribution associated with the storm agreed reasonably with observations.